Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-28

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-18) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-18 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-18 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-18 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-18 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-18 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-18)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-18) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 652 (579 – 721) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (9.6 – 19)
Algeria 191 (165 – 215) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 220 (23 – -28)
Argentina 678 (612 – 745) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (7.8 – 15)
Armenia 344 (307 – 373) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (11 – 55)
Australia 12 (5 – 19) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -56 (6.4 – -5.2)
Austria 40 (28 – 52) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -57 (14 – -9.4)
Azerbaijan 132 (111 – 152) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 63 (15 – -30)
Bahrain 245 (213 – 276) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -43 (81 – -17)
Bangladesh 1761 (1617 – 1882) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (14 – 26)
Belarus 1007 (915 – 1096) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 57 (27 – -460)
Belgium 258 (226 – 293) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -85 (42 – -21)
Benin 17 (7 – 25) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.9 – 2.2) 4 (2.2 – 20)
Bolivia 374 (342 – 413) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (11 – 38)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 17 (8 – 26) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -28 (8.6 – -5.4)
Brazil 17763 (16792 – 18652) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (19 – 30)
Bulgaria 24 (13 – 33) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -13 (29 – -5.4)
Cameroon 249 (218 – 277) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 14 (8.5 – 36)
Canada 1150 (1054 – 1227) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 110 (37 – -120)
Central African Republic 48 (32 – 62) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 15 (6.2 – -35)
Chad 27 (14 – 37) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -210 (8.8 – -8.1)
Chile 4318 (3995 – 4657) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (11 – 16)
China 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.6) 68 (4 – -4.6)
Colombia 943 (840 – 1035) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (13 – 27)
Cote dIvoire 46 (30 – 57) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 110 (11 – -13)
Croatia 8 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 2) 11 (2.5 – -4.4)
Cuba 14 (5 – 20) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 61 (5.2 – -6.4)
Czechia 61 (44 – 76) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 280 (13 – -14)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 120 (100 – 141) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 20 (9.6 – -180)
Denmark 59 (44 – 72) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -100 (16 – -12)
Djibouti 129 (108 – 150) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 11 (6.4 – 52)
Dominican Republic 334 (290 – 375) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 64 (21 – -62)
Ecuador 469 (424 – 515) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -30 (-130 – -17)
Egypt 802 (716 – 865) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 22)
El Salvador 81 (63 – 99) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 31 (10 – -30)
Equatorial Guinea 62 (48 – 75) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 13 (6.1 – -550)
Estonia 10 (2 – 16) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 17 (3.6 – -6.2)
Ethiopia 56 (38 – 71) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 7 (4.2 – 19)
Finland 32 (20 – 42) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -12 (66 – -5.5)
France 325 (282 – 358) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -26 (-120 – -14)
Gabon 115 (94 – 136) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 19 (9.1 – -140)
Germany 498 (447 – 538) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -32 (-150 – -18)
Ghana 148 (123 – 169) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) 54 (15 – -35)
Greece 10 (2 – 16) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) -22 (6.2 – -3.9)
Guatemala 270 (239 – 300) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7.9 – 22)
Guinea 72 (55 – 88) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -54 (21 – -12)
Guinea Bissau 31 (19 – 40) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -150 (10 – -9.1)
Haiti 89 (72 – 105) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 17 (8.1 – -320)
Honduras 216 (188 – 241) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (8.6 – 36)
Hungary 29 (17 – 39) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -27 (15 – -7)
Iceland 7 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.5 (0.4 – 4.5) 1.7 (0.85 – -2.2)
India 6946 (6394 – 7443) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 16 (14 – 20)
Indonesia 680 (624 – 737) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 27 (16 – 76)
Iran 2247 (2096 – 2393) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 39 (26 – 76)
Iraq 184 (155 – 206) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.1 – 34)
Ireland 73 (57 – 89) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -11 (-76 – -6.1)
Israel 18 (9 – 25) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) 38 (6 – -8.5)
Italy 577 (527 – 630) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -25 (-62 – -16)
Japan 39 (27 – 51) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -25 (19 – -7.5)
Kazakhstan 334 (297 – 366) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (14 – 280)
Kenya 54 (40 – 67) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 30 (9 – -21)
Kosovo 15 (5 – 21) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 17 (4.3 – -8.7)
Kuwait 886 (824 – 963) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) -1700 (54 – -51)
Kyrgyzstan 37 (24 – 48) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 52 (8.8 – -14)
Latvia 10 (2 – 18) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) 78 (4.2 – -4.7)
Lebanon 28 (15 – 38) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 15 (5.4 – -20)
Lithuania 15 (6 – 23) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 20 (4.7 – -9)
Luxembourg 10 (1 – 18) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.6) 400 (4.3 – -4.4)
Madagascar 38 (26 – 50) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 15 (6.1 – -37)
Malaysia 102 (83 – 121) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7 (4.8 – 13)
Maldives 44 (29 – 57) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 25 (7.6 – -19)
Mexico 3141 (2873 – 3383) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (15 – 25)
Moldova 128 (108 – 153) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -28 (97 – -12)
Mongolia 4 (0 – 8) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.1 – 1.4) -3.8 (6.8 – -1.5)
Morocco 76 (57 – 93) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -35 (28 – -11)
Nepal 56 (40 – 68) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 13 (6.2 – -360)
Netherlands 197 (167 – 222) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 50 (16 – -45)
New Zealand 7 (0 – 16) Likely increasing 2.1 (0.5 – 3.6) 3.3 (1.3 – -6.4)
Niger 11 (3 – 19) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) 28 (3.7 – -5.2)
Nigeria 271 (237 – 300) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 74 (20 – -45)
North Macedonia 29 (16 – 39) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 39 (7.2 – -11)
Norway 20 (11 – 30) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 27 (5.6 – -10)
Oman 334 (300 – 367) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 52 (19 – -75)
Pakistan 1955 (1821 – 2069) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 43 (26 – 130)
Palestine 11 (0 – 25) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2) 11 (2.7 – -5.6)
Panama 257 (212 – 293) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (7.8 – 24)
Paraguay 12 (4 – 18) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -110 (6 – -5.4)
Peru 4640 (4249 – 4992) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 28 (21 – 41)
Philippines 268 (224 – 302) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (13 – -410)
Poland 421 (371 – 460) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (16 – 180)
Portugal 236 (201 – 267) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 59 (18 – -50)
Puerto Rico 79 (61 – 95) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 77 (13 – -20)
Qatar 1796 (1653 – 1938) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 28 (20 – 49)
Romania 190 (160 – 217) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 870 (24 – -24)
Russia 9612 (8963 – 10219) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 120 (54 – -500)
Saudi Arabia 2548 (2384 – 2724) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 89 (43 – -1000)
Senegal 78 (58 – 98) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -47 (22 – -11)
Serbia 70 (54 – 85) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -180 (16 – -14)
Sierra Leone 37 (22 – 50) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 19 (6.2 – -17)
Singapore 532 (472 – 583) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -120 (50 – -26)
Slovakia 7 (1 – 13) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.2) 11 (2.5 – -4.4)
Somalia 33 (21 – 44) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -18 (22 – -6.4)
South Africa 1084 (976 – 1172) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 25 (17 – 45)
South Korea 27 (16 – 35) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 19 (5.8 – -15)
South Sudan 85 (68 – 102) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.8) 5.4 (3.7 – 9.7)
Spain 676 (616 – 737) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 30 (17 – 120)
Sri Lanka 51 (37 – 64) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 6.7 (4.1 – 19)
Sudan 179 (155 – 206) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 66 (16 – -31)
Sweden 521 (471 – 572) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 110 (27 – -57)
Switzerland 20 (12 – 28) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -12 (30 – -4.9)
Tajikistan 218 (187 – 242) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 20 (11 – 97)
Thailand 6 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.4) 8.1 (2.1 – -3.9)
Tunisia 6 (0 – 12) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.5 – 2.8) 4.9 (1.7 – -5.9)
Turkey 1109 (1012 – 1200) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -35 (-200 – -19)
Ukraine 405 (359 – 446) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 310 (30 – -38)
United Arab Emirates 911 (842 – 989) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 35 (21 – 120)
United Kingdom 2796 (2510 – 3043) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -340 (46 – -36)
United Republic of Tanzania 9 (3 – 14) Decreasing 0.6 (0.3 – 1) -5.9 (-94 – -3.1)
United States of America 22863 (21533 – 24046) Increasing 1 (1 – 1) 130 (70 – 910)
Uzbekistan 67 (50 – 81) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 22 (8.4 – -38)
Venezuela 73 (52 – 90) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 23 (8.4 – -32)
Zambia 40 (27 – 51) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -13 (120 – -6)